A Public Policy Polling survey of Georgia voters found that 52% oppose the sweeping spending plan, which slashes Medicaid and safety net programs while extending Trump-era tax cuts.
The poll, conducted July 8–9, is one of the first to gauge Georgia reaction on the measure since Republicans muscled it through Congress at Trump’s urging. And the results offer a blueprint of how Democrats could plan to weaponize it.
Pollsters tested out various Democratic talking points, including telling voters that the bill will slash spending “for seniors in nursing homes, kids and working families,” threaten the “closure of hundreds of hospitals” and increase “the costs of energy, food and health care.”
Those lines appeared to resonate with voters, as 52% of them said they would be “less likely” to vote for a candidate who supported the bill after being told what was in it.
A lot could happen between now and November 2026. Many of the bill’s provisions won’t take effect until after the election. But if that polling holds, it could have the biggest impact on Georgia’s U.S. Senate race.
Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff voted against the bill. But U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter — one of the first Republicans to join the Senate race — led a subcommittee that formulated the Medicaid spending cuts. And U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, who is preparing for a potential run, helped whip votes to pass the measure.
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Gov. Brian Kemp is expecting budgets to be tight for state agencies due to federal spending cuts.
Credit: Arvin Temkar/AJC
Good morning! Here are three things to know today:
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are among the well-known GOP figures to receive campaign contributions from a Georgia lender accused of operating a $140 million Ponzi scheme, the AJC’s Charles Minshew, David Wickert and Greg Bluestein report.
Gov. Brian Kemp has told state agencies to prepare for tight budgetsas Georgia braces for the impact of federal spending cuts, Wickert reports.
Georgia is on track to have among the biggest price increases in the nation for health insurance costs on the Affordable Care Act exchange next year, the AJC’s Ariel Hart reports.
Georgia 2026
U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, R-Jackson, spoke at a rally for Donald Trump in Atlanta last year.
The Jackson Republican spent the weekend making calls to a range of activists, elected officials and allies of President Donald Trump courting their support for his bid, which could be announced later this month.
We know this because some of them helpfully let us know they received the calls.
He’s trying to seize a MAGA lane in the wide-open race to take on DemocraticU.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff next year. U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter and Insurance Commissioner John King are already in the Republican race, and former football coach Derek Dooley could soon follow.
Collins told Republicans he sees an opening for a hard-line conservative with deep pro-Trump credentials.
Secretary of state race
State Rep. Tim Fleming, R-Covington, hopes to be the next secretary of state for Georgia.
Credit: Ben Gray for the AJC
Republican state Rep. Tim Fleming rolled out an early show of strength in his bid for Georgia’s top elections post.
Fleming announced endorsements from 70 state legislators this morning in his campaign for secretary of state, including House Majority Leader Chuck Efstration, R-Mulberry, and Majority Whip James Burchett, R-Waycross.
He also named two high-profile GOP figures as campaign co-chairs: Joe Gebbia Sr., the former Brookhaven council member; and Cade Joiner, a University System of Georgia Board of Regents member and influential party fundraiser.
Fleming is trying to scare off GOP rivals in the race to succeed incumbent Brad Raffensperger, who is eyeing a run for higher office.
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Sneak attack
Debra Shigley is a Democrat who hopes to win a special election next month in an Alpharetta-based district.
Credit: Courtesy photo
Democrat Debra Shigley is trying to pull off what would be a stunning special election win next month in an Alpharetta-based district where Republicans dominate.
She’s the lone Democrat on the ballot against six MAGA-aligned Republicans vying to replace state Sen. Brandon Beach, who resigned to join the Trump administration.
Shigley is leaning on a base of energized Democrats and help from high-profile allies like state Sen. Jason Esteves, a top candidate for governor, who campaigned with her this weekend.
“It’s me, the one Democrat, and six very MAGA Republicans,” Shigley said. “And we are going to take them by surprise. We are already clearly outworking them.”
Shigley, an attorney and former journalist, lost an uphill battle last year against Jan Jones, the No. 2 Republican in the Georgia House.
This campaign, she said she’s aiming to maximize Democratic turnout with a message focused on bolstering health care and fighting GOP-led efforts to expand school vouchers.
“Debra is someone who knows that Georgia has made progress, but we’ve left far too many people behind,” Esteves said. “And there’s so much more that we can do and that Georgia can do better.”
Democratic gov contender Jason Esteves campaigns in Alpharetta with Georgia Senate contender Debra Shigley to flip a GOP-held seat in an August special election. “It’s me, the one Democrat, and six very MAGA Republicans,” Shigley says. “And we are going to take them by surprise.” pic.twitter.com/a9IysK2XIT
Marqus Cole (left) and Akbar Ali are vying for a seat in the Georgia Legislature.
Credit: Courtesy photos
State Rep. Shelly Hutchinson won’t officially leave office until next week, but the race for a successor is already underway.
Akbar Ali, first vice chair of the Gwinnett County Democratic Party, and Marqus Cole, chair of the Gwinnett Coalition, have both launched campaigns for the legislative seat. It will be filled by a special election after Hutchinson leaves office on Aug. 4 to care for a family member recently diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease.
Gauging these special elections are tricky, especially with turnout likely to be low. But Ali, a 21-year-old recent graduate of Kennesaw State University, already has an advantage. Hutchinson endorsed him on Friday, saying his youth is “a tremendous asset.”
“In a time when youth voter participation remains critically low across the country, it is essential that we elevate young leaders who reflect the urgency, perspective, and energy of the next generation,” Hutchinson said in a statement.
Cole bristled at the endorsement, saying he has concerns “about picking winners and losers and not giving the voters an opportunity to see what’s there.”
Cole unsuccessfully ran for a seat on the Gwinnett County Commission last year. He said his campaign would focus on affordability issues, which he said includes expanding Georgia’s Medicaid program.
“It’s been a decade plus and we still haven’t done the right thing,” he said.
Ali said he isn’t taking anything for granted, noting he’s stayed up until 3 a.m. “doing all the work.” He said he considered pursuing a career in journalism, but soon found inspiration from local government leaders.
“The best way to get involved is to do it yourself,” he said.
Listen up
Today on “Politically Georgia,” the hosts take a closer look at the alleged $140 million Ponzi scheme tied to a well-connected Georgia family with deep Republican ties. Then, they answer questions from the listener mailbag.
You can listen and subscribe to the show for free at Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Have a question or comment for the show?
Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.
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Delta problems
Delta Air Lines is experiencing turbulence with the Trump administration.
Credit: TNS
The Trump administration has imposed limits on flights to the U.S. from Mexico and threatened to end Delta Air Lines’ partnership with Aeromexico, the Associated Press reported. The changes over the weekend are the White House’s response to limits placed by the Mexican government years ago on flights into Mexico City.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said those actions by Mexico were an attempt to force airlines to use the newer Felipe Angeles International Airport more than 30 miles away from Mexico City, the AP reported. The White House believes that policy violates trade agreements and gave Mexican airlines and unfair advantage.
But the latest move adds to the ongoing fight by Delta and Aeromexico against the U.S. Department of Transportation’s attempts to dismantle their nearly decade-long partnership, an issue that first blossomed during President Joe Biden’s final year in office.
The airlines say ending this agreement would jeopardize U.S.-Mexico routes and unfairly punishes the carriers because of actions taken by Mexico’s government.
Today in Washington
President Donald Trump will have lunch with Vice President JD Vance.
The House has evening votes scheduled.
The Senate will vote on more of Trump’s nominees.
ICE aftermath
Ximena Arias-Cristobal (left) spoke at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta on Sunday. Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock is the church's senior pastor.
Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, the church’s senior pastor, said he invited Cristobal to the Women’s Day celebration because he wanted the congregation to see the effect of the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration.
“I want to center all of our humanity,” he said.
Arias-Cristobal told the church that her faith remained strong throughout her ordeal.
“What I’ve endured over these past weeks — having my ankles, waist and hands chained up — is something I wouldn’t wish upon anybody,” she said. “Whenever I was in Stewart Detention Center, I turned to the book of Luke and found light in one of the darkest moments of my life.”
She was granted bond after being held for more than two weeks in May after it was revealed that she was pulled over and arrested by an officer who mistakenly believed she had made an illegal turn at a red light. Arias-Cristobal was 4-years-old when she and her family entered the U.S. from Mexico without legal status.
Shoutouts
State Rep. Don Parsons, R-Marietta, first took office in 1995.
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Today’s birthdays:
State Rep. Mike Cameron, R-Rossville.
State Rep. Don Parsons, R-Marietta.
Belated birthdays:
State Rep. Jason Ridley, R-Chatsworth (was Saturday).
Brenda Snow, a faithful newsletter reader from McIntyre (was Saturday).
State Rep. Chuck Martin, R-Alpharetta (was Sunday).
Want a birthday shoutout in the Politically Georgia newsletter? There’s a form for that. Click here to submit the shoutouts. It’s not just birthdays. We’re also interested in new jobs, engagements, birth announcements, etc.
Before you go
Activists put up a poster of accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein (left) and President Donald Trump near the U.S. Embassy in London last week.
Credit: Thomas Kryc/AP
The Trump administration has asked to unseal grand jury transcripts in the prosecution of accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, who died in 2019. But former federal prosecutors say there’s likely not much there to see.
The Politically Georgia team starts your day with insights and analysis from Peachtree Street to Pennsylvania Avenue. If you do not want this newsletter, unsubscribe here.
The Politically Georgia team starts your day with insights and analysis from Peachtree Street to Pennsylvania Avenue. If you do not want this newsletter, unsubscribe here.
